The Week 16 NFL schedule for the 2023 season continues Monday with three nice matchups on Christmas Day, and we’ll let you know what it is advisable to know. Our NFL Nation reporters convey us the highest keys to each recreation and a daring prediction for every recreation.
Plus, ESPN Stats & Data presents an incredible stat to know and betting nugget for each recreation, and our Soccer Energy Index (FPI) goes contained in the numbers with a recreation projection and a take a look at the playoff image. Analytics author Seth Walder picks the most important X-factor of every matchup, and fantasy analyst Eric Moody dishes out helpful fantasy soccer info. Lastly, Walder and Moody give us the ultimate rating for all three video games. Every thing it is advisable to know is true right here in a single place, so you may put together for a busy day of NFL soccer.
Let’s check out the total checklist, together with Raiders-Chiefs, Giants-Eagles and Ravens-49ers. (All play-off odds percentages are through FPI and unbiased of different outcomes.)
Go to a matchup:
LV-KC | NYG PHI | BAL-SF
1:00 PM ET | CBS | Scatter: KC -10 (40.5)
Storyline to observe: The Chiefs have crushed the Raiders in 10 of 11 video games with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, however that does not inform the entire story. In solely three of these wins was the ultimate margin lower than 14 factors. In any other case they’d have been crooked. So the query underlying that is: Can the Raiders discover a approach to keep shut and provides themselves an opportunity to win by taking part in late within the recreation? –Adam Teicher
Daring prediction: Raiders edge rusher Maxx Crosby, who has a career-high 13.5 sacks, will sack his “frenemy” Mahomes a minimum of twice. The rivalry between the 2 has intensified over the previous two seasons, even because the Chiefs have dominated the collection since Crosby and Mahomes first met in 2019. Crosby has sacked Mahomes 4 occasions and recorded 4 QB hits of their previous three conferences. –Paul Gutierrez
Statistic to know: The Chiefs are aiming for his or her ninth straight 10-win season, which might tie for the third-longest streak in NFL historical past. It will even be Mahomes’ sixth consecutive 10-win marketing campaign because the beginning quarterback, breaking a tie for the third-longest streak in NFL historical past.
Matchup X Issue: Raiders edge rusher Malcolm Koonce. You already know Crosby goes to convey it, however Koonce performed nicely. Since Week 9, he ranks fifth in move rush wins at edge, and final week he recorded two sacks in opposition to the Chargers. If the Raiders wish to stifle the Chiefs, the Koonce/Crosby tandem must be at its greatest. –Walder
What’s at stake: The Chiefs may have fun Christmas with an AFC West title in the event that they win, and it might additionally give them a 20% probability of incomes the highest seed and a playoff bye. The Raiders are clinging to postseason goals and their odds would enhance to six% in the event that they win. Learn extra.
Accidents: Robbers | Leaders
What it is advisable to find out about fantasy: Mahomes has averaged 303.5 passing yards in opposition to the Raiders in his profession, which is nice information for Chiefs receiver Rashee Rice. Mahomes has accomplished 80% of his passes and averaged 9.0 yards per move try when throwing to Rice. He additionally has six passing touchdowns and no interceptions when focusing on the rookie. See the week 16 rankings. — Moody
Guess: Raiders video games are 10-4 to the beneath this season, which is tied for the very best beneath share within the NFL. Learn extra.
Moody’s selection: Leaders 28, Raiders 20
Walder’s selection: Leaders 34, Raiders 10
FPI prediction: KC, 82.6% (with a median of 12.4 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Jones wanting to benefit from recent begin with Raiders…Mahomes accepts punishment for blasting officers…Reid expects Pacheco again in opposition to Raiders
4:30 PM ET | FOX | Scatter: PHI -13.5 (42.5)
Storyline to observe: It is Matty Pencils versus Tommy Cutlets. Matt Patricia is in his second week because the Eagles’ defensive playcaller after taking on for Sean Desai. He is attempting to show round a protection that ranks final third and thirty first in passing touchdowns allowed. Quarterback Tommy DeVito has given New York a spark by throwing eight landing passes to 3 interceptions in seven video games (5 begins), however the Giants are coming off a 24-6 loss to the Saints through which DeVito handed for simply 177 yards and was sacked seven time. –Tim McManus
Daring prediction: DeVito throws 300 yards. He has by no means failed in prime time. So what if there is just one proof recreation? The Achilles heel of this Eagles protection is in opposition to the move, the place they’re twenty eighth within the NFL in permitting 255.4 yards via the air per recreation. DeVito has already mentioned he welcomes the hostile setting that may certainly greet him in Philadelphia, and that he may muster huge numbers. –Jordan Raanan
Statistic to know: Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has a career-high 14 dashing touchdowns this season (already tied for probably the most in a season by any QB in NFL historical past with Cam Newton in 2011). A fifteenth dashing rating would tie halfback Steve Van Buren for the second-highest rating in a season of any Eagles participant in 1945 (LeSean McCoy had 17 in 2011).
Matchup X Issue: Giants tight finish Darren Waller. The fact of the DeVito period is that it was enjoyable and stuffed with hype, but in addition solely featured one recreation with a QBR of 32 or greater. DeVito wants assist, and Waller – who not too long ago returned from harm – can present it. Higher play from the tight finish can be the primary of many breaks the Giants would want to tug off an upset. –Walder
What’s at stake: Philly has reached the playoffs, however continues to be preventing for the NFC East. The Eagles would have a 77% probability of profitable a division title with a win (10% within the race for the convention’s high seed) and 21% with a loss. The Giants can be inside 1% of constructing the playoffs in the event that they pulled off the upset on Christmas Day. Learn extra.
Accidents: Giants | Eagles
What it is advisable to find out about fantasy: In Week 15, Eagles operating again D’Andre Swift had a positive matchup in opposition to the Seahawks and delivered a stable efficiency. He gained 75 yards with 20 touches. The Eagles are double-digit favorites in opposition to the Giants, so the implication is that Philadelphia will play with a lead. The Giants’ protection has allowed the fourth-most dashing yards and third-most dashing touchdowns per recreation to opponents. This bodes nicely for Swift. See the week 16 rankings. — Moody
Guess: The Giants are outright 0-5 and 1-4 ATS in opposition to groups that at the moment have profitable information. Learn extra.
Moody’s selection: Eagles 28, Giants 17
Walder’s selection: Eagles 27, Giants 13
FPI prediction: PHI, 87.5% (with a median of 15.2 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Giants, DeVito nonetheless have loads on the road in recreation in opposition to Eagles … Dickerson undergoes thumb surgical procedure … DeVito on pizzeria flap: Some ‘issues slipped via the cracks’
8:15 PM ET | ABC/ESPN+ | Scatter: SF-5 (46.5)
Storyline to observe: Talking of a Christmas current, this recreation might be a preview of Tremendous Bowl LVIII, with the Niners and Ravens as betting odds and ESPN FPI favorites to signify their conferences within the huge recreation. In line with Elias Sports activities Bureau, it is solely the second recreation between groups with a share of the NFL’s greatest document in Week 16 or later because the 1970 merger. It is also one other prime-time alternative for Niners QB Brock Purdy and RB Christian McCaffrey and Ravens QB Lamar Jackson to say the league’s Most Beneficial Participant award. –Nick Wagoner
Daring prediction: The Ravens will maintain McCaffrey out of the top zone. He’s the second 49ers participant to attain 20 touchdowns in a season, becoming a member of Corridor of Famer Jerry Rice, who scored 23 in 1987. However Baltimore, which leads the NFL in scoring protection, has not allowed a dashing landing in 4 straight video games. a time-frame of 13 quarters. — Jamison Hensley
Statistic to know: The 49ers have gained six straight video games by double digits, tied for his or her longest streak in franchise historical past (1987 and 1993). The final workforce to win by double figures seven straight occasions in a single season was the 2007 Patriots (eight).
Matchup X Issue: 49ers large receiver Deebo Samuel. The Ravens do not let the receivers get open. In truth, they’ve the second-best defensive workforce open score (71) in ESPN’s monitoring stats. However that is not how Samuel wins: he is a YAC machine. Possibly the Ravens can decelerate Brandon Aiyuk (who excels at being open). However stopping Samuel is a distinct sort of problem. –Walder
What’s at stake: Each groups have locked up playoff berths and the 49ers have already gained the NFC West. The Niners even have a path in Week 16 to No. 1: They want wins and losses in opposition to Dallas, Detroit and Philadelphia. The Ravens can take residence the AFC North in the event that they win and Cleveland loses, and a win would put them at 82% to clinch the AFC’s No. 1 seed (52% if a loss). Learn extra.
Accidents: Raven | 49ers
What it is advisable to find out about fantasy: Due to his dual-threat means, Jackson can nonetheless be thought of a top-five fantasy quarterback even when dealing with a stout 49ers protection. San Francisco’s protection allowed 234 dashing yards to the Cardinals in Week 15. The Ravens may have related success on the ground behind their offensive line, which ranks fourth in run blocks gained. With Keaton Mitchell dominated out for the season resulting from a knee harm, Jackson may see extra carries, and operating again Gus Edwards – who has scored a landing in six of his previous eight video games – might be an intriguing flex choice. See the week 16 rankings. — Moody
Guess: Jackson is 24-11-2 ATS on the street in his profession. Learn extra.
Moody’s selection: 49ers 17, Ravens 14
Walder’s selection: 49ers 26, Ravens 21
FPI prediction: SF, 64% (with a median of 4.8 factors)
Matchup must-reads: Underdog Ravens really feel ‘disrespected’ forward of showdown with 49ers… Juszczyk believes versatility is essential to protecting fullbacks related within the NFL… Jackson hears ‘MVP’ chants once more… The case for and in opposition to Purdy as MVP